UK shoppers to spend GBP £17.9 billion in Golden Quarter

Epsilon has published research suggesting UK consumers expect to spend GBP £17.9 billion during the Golden Quarter, while highlighting a gap between shopper intentions and marketer plans.

Based on surveys of 2,000 UK adults and 200 marketers, the study found average planned spending of GBP £334 per person on gifts and personal purchases between Black Friday and the January sales. Even so, many consumers said they would curb discretionary spending and delay larger purchases as household budgets remain under pressure.

More than seven in 10 consumers, or 71%, said they plan to cut back on non-essential items. Another 68% said they would look for lower prices, while 63% said they would put off bigger purchases.

Those figures suggest the headline spending total may be harder for brands to capture than marketers expect. The report noted that audiences are becoming harder to reach as advertising spend continues to rise, creating a more competitive market for consumer attention.

Consumer caution does not amount to a complete retreat from spending. Almost half of respondents, or 48%, said they would still allow themselves the occasional treat, while more than one in three said they would favour quality over quantity.

Switching habits

The research also pointed to a willingness among shoppers to switch brands in search of better value. Groceries emerged as the leading category for switching, with 60% of consumers saying they would consider trying something new, ahead of fashion, homeware, beauty and electronics.

For those who stay loyal, price remains central. Consistently good prices were cited by 47% of respondents as a reason to stick with a brand, followed by trust at 42% and rewards at 35%.

Shoppers are also using a broad mix of channels to discover products. Search engines, retailer websites, physical stores, social media platforms and price comparison sites all featured, suggesting buying decisions are shaped across several touchpoints rather than through a single route.

Even so, 82% of marketers said they were consolidating more of their spending into the major platforms. That trend comes alongside concerns over measurement, with 55% saying platforms provide too little data for cross-channel campaigns.

Brand debate

The findings suggest many marketing teams remain focused on near-term sales despite signs that consumers are becoming more selective. Just 8% of marketers said they plan to prioritise brand investment over performance activity during the shopping period, while 79% said they would push harder to drive sales.

Among smaller challenger brands, the tilt towards performance marketing was even sharper. In that group, 90% said they planned to move budget towards performance activity.

That preference may leave some brands exposed if shoppers use the period to reassess loyalties. With consumers saying they are willing to switch and wait before making purchases, visibility and familiarity may become more important in categories where decisions are less impulsive.

Retailers also appear to hold an advantage in building confidence. Some 56% of consumers said they feel more confident in a product promoted by a retailer they already shop with.

The effect was particularly notable among younger shoppers. Gen Z and Millennial consumers placed greater value on a retailer's online and in-store presence, reflecting the importance of trust and product provenance for groups used to navigating a crowded online marketplace.

Holly Williams, Vice President, Client Services & Growth at Epsilon, said the seasonal shopping period should not be treated as a series of isolated promotional moments. "It's never been more important for brands to show up consistently," Williams said.

She added that marketers risk placing too much weight on individual tentpole events. "There's a risk that many see the peak buying season as a series of individual events, with Black Friday, Amazon Prime Day and so on as fixed dates in the calendar. But with UK audiences remaining flat, it's more important than ever to maintain a presence across the whole buying period to build familiarity and trust," Williams said.

The report also highlighted broader industry pressures beyond seasonal shopping. While UK advertising expenditure is expected to exceed GBP £50 billion, audience growth has not kept pace, making reach more contested and increasing pressure on marketers to justify budget allocation.

Against that backdrop, Epsilon argued that a narrow focus on conversion may miss shifts in consumer behaviour. "With shoppers saying they plan to switch up, defer purchases and focus on buying quality over quantity, the 8% investing in their brands may well emerge this year's peak season winners."