UK goods exports jump in January despite US downturn

UK goods exports rose sharply in January, official data showed, with gains across both EU and non-EU markets despite a fall in shipments to the United States.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) international trade bulletin reported that goods exports increased by 6.7% in January, up £2bn on the previous month. Exports to the EU and to non-EU countries both rose, while exports to the US declined.

Parcelhero said the January uplift could prove short-lived, as trading conditions worsened in February and March. The delivery specialist cited changes in US tariff arrangements and wider geopolitical disruption as key risks for exporters.

David Jinks M.I.L.T., Head of Consumer Research at Parcelhero, said: "2026 got off to a flying start with a £2bn month-on-month increase in goods exports over December 2025. With December traditionally being a strong month because of the Christmas peak, this was a particularly good result."

EU and non-EU

ONS data showed exports to non-EU countries increased by £1.1bn (7.1%) in January, while exports to the EU rose by £0.9bn (6.2%).

Jinks said the US was the only major market to decline, down by £0.5bn (11.3%).

Exports of machinery and transport equipment were a major factor behind the EU increase, alongside fuels. Non-EU growth reflected gains in chemicals, machinery and transport equipment, and fuels.

"The UK's main export successes to the EU were a £0.6bn rise in exports of machinery & transport equipment and a £0.3bn increase in fuel exports. Key to non-EU market growth were a £0.5bn rise in chemical exports and a £0.3bn increase in exports of both machinery & transport equipment and fuels," Jinks said.

The ONS also reported growth in a broader three-month view. Total goods exports increased by £1.8bn (2%) in the three months from November 2025 to January 2026, compared with the preceding three months.

"Month-on-month figures are volatile, which is why a three-month period is more indicative of the UK's overall trading picture. Here again, it was positive news," Jinks said. "Total exports of goods increased by £1.8bn (2%) in the three-month period November 2025-January 2026 over the preceding three-month period (August-October 2025). This rise was because goods exports to non-EU countries increased by £1bn (2.1%) and goods exports to the EU also rose by £0.8bn (1.8%)."

US pressure

The US was the only major market in the ONS breakdown to show a decline in January. Parcelhero linked the fall to weaker sales of machinery and transport equipment, with cars a key factor.

"It would not pay to bet the farm on the rest of 2026 progressing so smoothly for UK exporters. Already in January we could see the US market faltering," Jinks said. "There was a £0.4bn fall in exports of machinery & transport equipment to the US, with smaller falls in exports of most other commodities. Crucially, that fall ... was primarily because of reduced sales of cars to the US."

He added that the ONS has noted: "The value of goods exports to the United States have remained relatively low since the introduction of trade tariffs in April 2025 and British-manufactured cars have been particularly hard-hit."

Parcelhero said a change to US tariff policy in February altered the competitive position for UK exporters selling into the American market. A global 10% basic tariff, it said, reduced the relative advantage some UK products had previously held compared with goods from countries that had faced higher tariff rates.

"February's imposition of a global 10% basic tariff on goods arriving in the US will have harmed UK exports to the USA still further," Jinks said. "Even though 10% was the rate being paid on many UK products already, the majority of other countries were paying higher tariffs until this change, which means UK products sold in the US are now no cheaper than similar ones from most other countries."

Imports fall

Alongside the rise in exports, imports fell in January. The value of goods imports decreased by £0.3bn (0.6%), with a drop in imports from non-EU countries partly offset by a rise in imports from the EU.

Goods imports also declined over the three months from November 2025 to January 2026, down £1.3bn (0.9%) compared with the three months to October 2025, according to the ONS figures cited by Parcelhero. Non-EU imports fell by £1.1bn (1.5%), while EU imports dropped by £0.2bn (0.3%).

Parcelhero said the fall in imports narrowed the UK's goods trade deficit excluding precious metals. It put the deficit at £56.6bn over the three-month period, down £3.1bn, as exports increased and imports declined.

"While this was bad news for UK importers, every cloud has a silver lining," Jinks said. "The fall in imports meant that the UK's trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £3.1bn to £56.6bn over the three-month period, because goods exports increased while imports fell."

Looking specifically at trade with the US, Parcelhero highlighted the UK's overall balance of trade in goods and services with America as a factor that could shape future tariff discussions.

"In 2025, the UK's total imports from the USA were valued at £60.6bn but our exports were only £59.2bn. That means the UK currently has a negative trade balance with the US and - logically speaking - should not be included in any further tariff increases President Trump may impose on those countries he sees as financially exploiting the US," Jinks said.

"UK exporters are looking at another period of continuing volatility. Nonetheless, the US remains Parcelhero's biggest individual overseas market and a lucrative one for those exporters prepared to adapt to its challenges," he added.